I usually write about Canadian politics, but this is an American Election year. I’ve been watching what has been going on south of the border, and I’m going to make a prediction.
The Republicans are toast.
I know that I’m going to be told it is too early to make the call. Normally I’d agree, but there are some things in play this year that make this one an easy call.
The leadership of the Republican Party is on the wrong side of the Human Rights issue. This is a really wide issue, and because it is such wide issue, impacts a lot of voters. Let’s take a look at some of the more major of these rights issues.
1) Women’s Rights
Woman’s rights is a complex issue, because it includes such a wide range. The United States is about the only industrialized country that allows wage discrimination by sex. This hurts low income families far worse than anyone else. Anyone impacted by this has little choice but to vote Democrat.
Republicans are attempting to block birth control and abortion for all women. A lot of people look at the number of major women politicians who are Republican, and cannot understand this. The point that they miss is that many of these women Republicans are extremely well off, and can afford to fly to Canada for an abortion if they need one. This isn’t an option open to the average American woman.
The United States is the only industrialized country that doesn’t have paid Maternity Leave. The argument is that offering it would make the United States less productive, but countries like Germany and Sweden offer paid maternity leave, and are more productive.
2) Same Sex Rights
The United States is having a “discussion” about the affects of Same Sex Rights, with the leadership of the Republican Party solidly against expanding them. Curiously every point raised there against expanding Same Sex Rights has already played out in Canada, and not ONE of those points proved true. You’d think that American politicians would have enough intelligence to investigate the situation in a major trading partner that shares a border with them, but apparently this isn’t true.
Would you vote for someone who wants to take your rights away? That’s a problem that many Gay and Lesbian Republicans now have. They love their party, but their party hates them. The Republican Leadership isn’t giving them any choice, they have to vote Democrat, or not vote. As for Independents, it’s a no brainer.
3) Minority Rights
The Americans have a severe problem with electoral fraud, specifically the Republican Party is trying to defraud minority voters. Luckily they are doing this with their usual level of intelligence, i.e. they are screwing up big time. Their aim seems to be to try to deny anyone who might vote Democrat from the right to vote (this is my personal opinion, based on party actions that have been reported in the mainstream press).
At the same time they are screaming that they are being hurt by electoral fraud, without supplying any evidence that criminal electoral fraud is occurring. Exactly how many convictions have there been for electoral fraud? Not very many.
The end result is that they are pushing minority voters into voting Democrat.
What could be really hilarious is if 10,000 people in one state showed up on purpose without ID, and deliberately went through the process. Say they tried this in Florida. By the time that everyone was processed, it might be April…
Where does this lead?
It all comes down to demographics.
1) Nearly 43.9% of the population are minorities (Wikipedia)
2) Nearly 51.55% of the population are women. (Wikipedia)
3) Nearly 3.5% of the population are officially lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgendered. (Wikipedia)
There is some overlap of course. To be lesbian, you have to be a woman. About 51.55% of any minority group is women (the number of males born in any group is usually higher than the number of females due to how the human reproduction system works, however more males die than females every year, as more men work in dangerous jobs, and men are more prone to heart attacks, etc., however some groups practice sexual selection due to a cultural preference for male children – see the world charts for sex ratios by country).
Exactly what percentage of each of these three groups will vote Democrat isn’t know. Yet. But if the numbers are as high as indications I’m hearing, it looks like the Republicans could be heavily damaged in this election.
Let’s play around with some assumptions. Say that 65% of women vote Democrat, that 85% of gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgendered voters vote Democrat, and that 65% of minority voters vote Democrat, because of Republican policies.
Going with the smallest group, LGBT voters, 85% of 3.5% = 2.97. Of course there are a lot of LGBT voters who are in the closet due to prejudice. Some estimates are that close to 10% of the total population is LGBT (many bisexuals live an overtly heterosexual lifestyle because of prejudice – but will probably vote based on their interests). Assuming we go with the official numbers, in a tight election like in 2000, having a small but significant group like LGBT voters voting heavily Democrat would ruin Mit Romney’s chance at the White House.
For minorities I suggested 65%, since while there are definite reasons to prefer the Democrats, they aren’t as strong. Also many minorities tend to vote Democrat anyway, so our calculation of 65% of 43% = 28.53% may be much of a shift.
Women on the other hand are going to have a huge impact. Bill Clinton landed 54% of woman voters, and Barack Obama landed 56% of woman voters in 2008. If Obama were to land 65% of woman voters in 2012, the Republicans would have no chance of winning the presidency.
Alternatives for the Republicans
This comes down to one name – Meghan McCain.
While there are other Republicans who have similar views to her – in fact most of the youth wing of the party, she’s the best known. Dump Romney, and go with her, and the party has a chance.
Of course she hasn’t indicated that she has any interest in running for President. Problem is, that everyone who has expressed an interest, is a dinosaur.
Tuesday July 10, 2012